What FiveThirtyEight's NBA Projections Say About the 2022-23 Season
FiveThirtyEight's individual player projections are out, and they suggest some interesting things about the upcoming season.
I went through the individual wins above replacement projections at FiveThirtyEight for over 500 players, just so you don’t have to.
If you’re not aware of what any of that means, don’t worry, I have you covered there, too.
To put it simply, FiveThirtyEight’s “wins above replacement” is a catch-all metric (a number that tries to put basketball’s entire statistical cocktail into one number). It’s cumulative (think points, rather than points per game). And the projections are based on past production and how it relates to “similar players throughout NBA history… to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.”
Go check it out. It’s fun. Beyond single-season projections for 2022-23, it lists the players from history who are most similar to the one you’ve pulled up. It forecasts wins above replacement several years into the future. It even converts that forecast into a “five-year market value.” For example, LaMelo Ball is projected to be worth $310.2 million in salary over the course of the next five seasons. Russell Westbrook’s projection is $6.5 million. 😬
For our purposes today, though, we’re just looking at the forecast for 2022-23. And we’ll look at it in a couple different ways. First, buckle up for a simple list of 500-plus individual players, sorted by that 2022-23 projection. And second, feel free to peruse a list of all 30 teams, sorted by the total wins above replacement player of everyone they have listed.
But wait, before we get to the list, a note on all the players who missed most or all of 2021-22 (because there’s a bunch of them). Because the system uses past totals, a mark of 0.0 for Kawhi Leonard last season really throws a wrench in his projection. He totaled an All-NBA worthy 14.6 in 2019-20. Because of that donut in 2021-22, he’s projected for 4.5 in 2022-23 and categorized as a “key role player.” Obviously, take that with many grains of salt. On the other hand, James Wiseman was a statistical disaster as a rookie. His 0.0 last season actually tricks the system into thinking he improved, so he’s forecast to get 0.3 in 2022-23 and is categorized as a “defensive specialist.” Again, a healthy dusting of salt is necessary there (and for Jamal Murray, Ben Simmons, etc.).
And now, without further ado, the top 30 from the individual list (THE REST OF THE LIST CAN BE VIEWED HERE).
1-Nikola Jokić (DEN): 19.9
2-Luka Dončić (DAL): 16.0
3-Joel Embiid (PHI): 13.6
4-Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): 12.9
5-Jayson Tatum (BOS): 11.7
6-LaMelo Ball (CHA): 11.0
7-Paul George (LAC): 10.3
8-Fred VanVleet (TOR): 10.2
8-Rudy Gobert (MIN): 10.2
10-Jimmy Butler (MIA): 9.7
10-Stephen Curry (GSW): 9.7
12-Anthony Edwards (MIN): 9.4
13-Devin Booker (PHX): 8.5
13-James Harden (PHI): 8.5
15-Ja Morant (MEM): 8.2
16-Darius Garland (CLE): 8.0
17-Dejounte Murray (ATL): 7.9
17-Kyrie Irving (BRK): 7.9
19-Trae Young (ATL): 7.8
19-Scottie Barnes (TOR): 7.8
21-Jaylen Brown (BOS): 7.6
22-Mikal Bridges (PHX): 7.5
23-Desmond Bane (MEM): 7.4
23-Jrue Holiday (MIL): 7.4
25-Jakob Poeltl (SAS): 7.1
25-Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): 7.1
27-Damian Lillard (POR): 7.0
28-LeBron James (LAL): 6.9
28-Kevin Durant (BRK): 6.9
28-Donovan Mitchell (CLE): 6.9
Again, if you want to see the full, 500-plus player list CLICK THIS LINK. Once you’re in the Google Sheet, you can pull the old “CTRL+F” trick to search for a specific player.
As for the team totals, drawing sweeping conclusions from that information probably doesn’t make much sense. Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets may be dramatically shortchanged because of the aforementioned issues the forecast has with injuries. Including players with below-zero projections who might not even be on an opening night roster is another problem. So, just consider this count, as it currently stands, a rough guide or starting point for your analysis of teams. Use it in conjunction with your own opinions and Vegas over-unders. Or, do with it whatever else you’d like. It’s your life.
Boston Celtics: 49.4
Toronto Raptors: 47.0
Philadelphia 76ers: 47.0
Memphis Grizzlies: 45.3
Minnesota Timberwolves: 41.9
Phoenix Suns: 41.7
Atlanta Hawks: 40.4
Denver Nuggets: 39.7
Dallas Mavericks: 39.5
Miami Heat: 38.2
Los Angeles Clippers: 38.2
Milwaukee Bucks: 37.3
Cleveland Cavaliers: 36.1
Chicago Bulls: 35.1
New York Knicks: 34.0
New Orleans Pelicans: 32.8
Golden State Warriors: 32.5
Brooklyn Nets: 31.8
Charlotte Hornets: 31.6
Indiana Pacers: 26.3
Sacramento Kings: 25.3
Utah Jazz: 24.8
Washington Wizards: 23.9
Portland Trail Blazers: 23.8
Los Angeles Lakers: 20.6
Detroit Pistons: 20.3
San Antonio Spurs: 18.6
Orlando Magic: 17.4
Oklahoma City Thunder: 16.6
Houston Rockets: 11.1
Of course, none of this is to be considered definitive. Nothing, not even a highly sophisticated system like this, can truly predict the future.
But that doesn’t (and shouldn’t) prevent people from trying.