Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and the Top 50 NBA Players for the 2022-23 Season
Media outlets all over the internet are about to start releasing their preseason player rankings. Let's beat the rush.
Ranking the top players in the NBA is hard. Actually, it can feel borderline impossible.
The league is as loaded with talent as it’s ever been. The margins between the best players are razor thin. And every team and individual’s fan base seems ready to explode over the slightest hint of “disrespect.”
But that doesn’t stop ESPN, Bleacher Report (the home for my work for the last 12 years), CBS, The Athletic and pretty much any other outlet you can think of from releasing preseason player rankings.
Later this offseason, I’ll compile an aggregate of all of the above (and more) and talk about it here. Today, I’ll provide my own subjective top 50 (an arbitrary cutoff, to be sure) for the 2022-23 season.
To be more precise, these are the players I expect to be top 50 over the course of 2022-23. It’s not “Top 50 Players Right Now” or “Top 50 Players in 2021-22.” This is my estimate of what the top 50 will be this coming season.
To set a baseline for myself, I sorted over 400 players by the average of their ranks from two 2022-23 projections: FiveThirtyEight’s wins above replacement and Basketball Reference’s game score (“…a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game.”). For veterans who didn’t appear in a game last season (like Kawhi Leonard or Jamal Murray), I based their game scores on their per-36-minute production from the last season in which they played (don’t worry, subjectivity will override that problem later).
After that, in came the opinions, which were influenced by the eye test (duh), injury history, age, philosophical leanings (are playmakers more important than bigs?), size, expected role, teammates, etc. Past production also plays a role, and an exercise that gauges a number of catch-all metrics from around the internet was occasionally consulted.
No matter how precise a projection system is, it simply cannot be perfect. Predicting the future requires subjectivity, so there’s a massive dose of it below.
That, of course, opens this list up to criticism. It’s welcomed. There are arguments to move any of the following names up or down the ranking. You might push to expand, contract or rearrange the tiers (the tiers approach to these exercises has been championed by The Athletic’s Seth Partnow, and I’ll do it here.). There are dozens of potential honorable mentions (you’ll see those shortly).
No amount of caveats and explanations can eliminate any of that, so I’ll cut them off now.
Honorable Mentions
Again, this list can be huge. Mine is huge. The number of players outside my top 50 who have a case to be in, might be larger than, well, 50. I’ll do my best to keep it below that (and in alphabetical order by last name).
OG Anunoby
Lonzo Ball
Paolo Banchero
RJ Barrett
Mikal Bridges
Jalen Brunson
Wendell Carter Jr.
John Collins
Mike Conley
Cade Cunningham
Dorian Finney-Smith
De'Aaron Fox
Josh Giddey
Aaron Gordon
Jerami Grant
Tobias Harris
Gordon Hayward
Tyler Herro
Buddy Hield
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Keldon Johnson
Cameron Johnson
Tyus Jones
Herbert Jones
Kevon Looney
Kevin Love
Kyle Lowry
Tyrese Maxey
C.J. McCollum
Keegan Murray
Jakob Pöltl
Jordan Poole
Michael Porter Jr.
Julius Randle
Mitchell Robinson
Terry Rozier
D'Angelo Russell
Anfernee Simons
Marcus Smart
Jabari Smith
Klay Thompson
Myles Turner
Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Vucevic
Franz Wagner
Derrick White
Robert Williams
Christian Wood
Tier 1A: All-Time Great Big Men
1. Nikola Jokic
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 1st
WAR Projection: 1st
GmSc Projection: 2nd
The two-time reigning MVP is arguably the best passer in the world. He scored with 2015-16 Curry-esque volume and efficiency last season. And he’s an underrated defender.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 3rd
WAR Projection: 4th
GmSc Projection: 1st
The only player other than Jokic for whom I’ll entertain “best player in the world” arguments. Giannis is the superior defender, but it doesn’t quite make up for the gap on offense (though Giannis’ Shaq-like performance on that end helps him get to No. 2 here).
3. Joel Embiid
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 2nd
WAR Projection: 3rd
GmSc Projection: 3rd
A bruising, 90s-style post scorer who can also shoot threes and moneyball his way to 30-plus points. What separates him from the guys in the next tier is the fact that you can build a defense around him, too.
Tier 1B: Generational Offensive Engines
4. Luka Doncic
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 9th
WAR Projection: 2nd
GmSc Projection: 5th
There’s a chance Luka ascends to the level of the three above in 2022-23, but we still need to see a little more consistency as a defender and three-point shooter (though the degree of difficulty on many of his threes is worth mentioning).
5. Stephen Curry
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 5th
WAR Projection: 10th
GmSc Projection: 11th
He’s past his prime, but Curry just demonstrated he’s still good enough to be the alpha on a championship team. He sneakily shot under 40 percent from three for a full season for the first time in his career in 2021-22, but a full season of health for his supporting cast should return him to his normal, otherworldly efficiency.
Tier 2A: Jayson Tatum
6. Jayson Tatum
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 4th
WAR Projection: 5th
GmSc Projection: 17th
I’m so close to bumping Tatum up to the group with Doncic and Curry. He’s the best defender of the three, but the offensive dominance of Tier 1B’s current occupants sets them apart.
Tier 2B: Legendary Post-Prime Wings
7. Kawhi Leonard
2021-22 Catch-Alls: N/A
WAR Projection: 65th
GmSc Projection: N/A
It’s hard to imagine Kawhi playing more than 65 games. That has to be factored in. But if he’s 95 percent of his old self in the games he plays, he has a chance to be the best wing in the NBA.
8. Kevin Durant
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 6th
WAR Projection: 28th
GmSc Projection: 8th
Like Leonard, there are very real health concerns, but KD was a legitimate MVP candidate in the early part of 2021-22. If he can play 60-plus games, top-10 status is easily in play.
9. LeBron James
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 7th
WAR Projection: 28th
GmSc Projection: 10th
I’ve given up waiting for Father Time to slow LeBron down. He hasn’t been the best player in the world for a few years, but he’s still good enough to give his team a puncher’s chance against anyone.
10. Jimmy Butler
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 12th
WAR Projection: 10th
GmSc Projection: 13th
One of the few players in the league who’s undoubtedly his team’s best offensive and defensive player, three-point shooting is really the only box Butler doesn’t check. And he’s good enough at getting to the line (the old-fashioned way; not much flopping here) that that missing ingredient doesn’t really drag him down.
Tier 3A: Next Wave
11. Zion Williamson
2021-22 Catch-Alls: N/A
WAR Projection: 116th
GmSc Projection: N/A
This is a bit of a gamble. Zion’s longterm health might be a trickier question than it is for Kawhi or KD. When he’s healthy, though, Zion is an all-time great scorer (he trails only Michael Jordan and Embiid in career points per 75 possessions).
12. Trae Young
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 8th
WAR Projection: 19th
GmSc Projection: 6th
Has Trae actually become a bit underrated? Criticism of his defense is fair, but he’s an All-World creator with range out to 30 feet. During his career, the Hawks have scored 115.7 points per 100 possessions with Young on the floor and 105.6 with him off.
13. Ja Morant
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 17th
WAR Projection: 15th
GmSc Projection: 12th
Ja received more hype, and his team won more (it had a much better point differential when Morant didn’t play), but Trae had the better individual season. That doesn’t mean Morant will stay behind Young in 2022-23, though. He’s the more dynamic slasher. And his athleticism should, in theory, give him more defensive upside. There will be a lot of debates over these two in the near future.
Tier 3B: Dynamic Guards
14. James Harden
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 18th
WAR Projection: 13th
GmSc Projection: 15th
Much was made of the demise of Harden last season. And yes, the first step feels a bit slower than it once was, but he still averaged 21.0 points and 10.5 assists as a 76er. He’s a master manipulator out of the pick-and-roll, and few players have had their 2022 summer workout circuit hyped as much as his. A top 10-ish season could (and maybe should) be incoming.
15. Damian Lillard
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 81st
WAR Projection: 27th
GmSc Projection: 18th
It maybe should’ve been mentioned earlier, but wins above replacement is a cumulative stat (think points, rather than points per game). Players like Lillard or Kawhi being way below their career norms sort of tricks that system into thinking they might be worse than they actually are. For Lillard, if he’s mostly healthy in 2022-23, it’s hard to imagine him not threatening the top-10 to -15 range of players.
16. Devin Booker
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 11th
WAR Projection: 13th
GmSc Projection: 20th
Devin Booker was a worthy First Team All-NBA selection last season. There’s no reason to think he’ll regress. He just happens to be outside of this top 15 because of confidence in the players in front of him.
17. Kyrie Irving
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 50th
WAR Projection: 17th
GmSc Projection: 15th
When he’s actually playing basketball, Kyrie is one of the most exciting, dynamic offensive players in the world. And if we assume that Durant and Ben Simmons are generally available, Irving should have plenty of off-ball and catch-and-shoot opportunities to juice his efficiency a bit (although his 60.2 true shooting percentage over the last five seasons is already pretty juicy).
Tier 4A: Second Group of Bigs
18. Anthony Davis
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 40th
WAR Projection: 38th
GmSc Projection: 14th
This is a huge season for Anthony Davis. Over the eight seasons leading up to his championship, he had a 6.3 box plus/minus (BPM is “…a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court,” according to Basketball Reference's Daniel Myers). Since then, he’s at 4.3, and he’s only played 76 games. He’s only 29, so a return to his previous, defensively dominant form should be possible.
19. Rudy Gobert
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 10th
WAR Projection: 8th
GmSc Projection: 27th
Gobert is the most dominant defender of his generation. He’s a modern and much taller version of Ben Wallace, who’s actually a plus on offense, too. With the amount of attention that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will command on the perimeter, Gobert should feast on rim-runs, alley-oops and putbacks.
20. Karl-Anthony Towns
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 15th
WAR Projection: 25th
GmSc Projection: 9th
Gobert and Towns being teammates should be mutually beneficial. Gobert takes a ton of pressure off KAT on defense. And his vertical gravity as a roller will give Towns precious extra time on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Running 4-5 pick-and-roll with those two could force KAT to grow as a playmaker, too (coach Chris Finch helped unlock Jokic’s offense back in 2016-17).
Tier 4B: Passing of the Torch
21. Chris Paul
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 14th
WAR Projection: 35th
GmSc Projection: 37th
CP3 has had a pretty remarkable run of good health in his age-34 through -36 seasons. This isn’t necessarily a prediction that that will end. It’s just something to keep an eye on. If he can push into the high 60s for games played again, he’ll almost certainly have an All-NBA argument. He might still be the game’s premier engineer of individual offensive possessions.
22. LaMelo Ball
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 31st
WAR Projection: 6th
GmSc Projection: 26th
Paul has been the “Point God” for close to two decades. There’s plenty of competition for the title going forward, but you have to believe Ball is in the mix. His only weakness coming into the NBA appeared to be shooting. That's solved (he averaged 2.9 threes and shot 38.9 percent from three last season). And adding that kind of shooting to his size (6’6”), vision and passing ability puts him in the “best point guard in the NBA” conversation as a 21-year old.
Tier 5A: Playmaking Wings
23. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 32nd
WAR Projection: 65th
GmSc Projection: 22nd
Like Lillard, SGA’s WAR projection is impacted by his unavailability. He’s only played in 91 games over the last two seasons. But he’s a 6’6”, barely 24-year-old playmaker who can shoot and should be good for 20-plus points and five-plus assists in OKC.
24. Paul George
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 57th
WAR Projection: 7th
GmSc Projection: 40th
Oddly enough, FiveThirtyEight’s system could pretty much ignore PG’s recent injury history (he’s the only such example I came across). And if he’s healthy, he should be among the game’s best wings. His increased playmaking load over the last couple seasons adds a dimension he hadn’t really shown prior to joining the Clippers.
25. Anthony Edwards
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 43rd
WAR Projection: 12th
GmSc Projection: 63rd
Edwards already had a heck of a second season and playoff debut in 2021-22, but I sense a more meaningful breakout this season. He’s been one of the NBA’s most explosive finishers throughout his career, but Year 3 is the sweet spot for the star leap. A little more consistency as a shooter, passer and perimeter defender could put him in All-NBA range.
26. Dejounte Murray
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 13th
WAR Projection: 17th
GmSc Projection: 30th
Playing alongside Young means Murray will have far fewer on-ball reps in 2022-23, but he’ll also have a lot of easy looks created for him by one of the league’s best distributors. And having a little less responsibility on offense could lead to a bit more focus on Murray’s All-Defense level impact on the other end.
Tier 5B: Cavaliers Backcourt
27. Darius Garland
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 19th
WAR Projection: 16th
GmSc Projection: 65th
Garland operated Cleveland’s offense with the control and dynamism of a 10-year veteran last season, and now he’ll have Donovan Mitchell to relieve some of the defensive pressure he faced and be another assist target. Plenty of 20 and 10 games are on the way.
28. Donovan Mitchell
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 21st
WAR Projection: 28th
GmSc Projection: 23rd
This might feel a little low for someone who’s shown the ceiling Mitchell has in the postseason, but Garland’s 2021-22 production easily cleared DM’s in a blind poll (thanks largely to his superior passing). This feels like a coin flip, though. Both are among the best offensive guards in basketball. And though it’s an undersized duo, having them share a backcourt means the Cavs will be a nightmare to defend.
Tier 6A: Great No. 2s, Other Stars and Borderline Stars
29. Bam Adebayo
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 24th
WAR Projection: 31st
GmSc Projection: 24th
The arrival of Lowry cut into Bam’s playmaking responsibilities, but he’s still one of the better passing bigs in the NBA. That, explosive finishing and Defensive Player of the Year upside on that end of the floor makes Adebayo a borderline top-25 player.
30. Jaylen Brown
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 35th
WAR Projection: 21st
GmSc Projection: 43rd
Improved playmaking and a tighter handle would do wonders for Brown, but he's already a high-end and switchable perimeter defender. And for long stretches of the Finals, he looked like the lone Celtic with the kind of offensive killer instinct necessary for superstardom.
31. Jrue Holiday
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 16th
WAR Projection: 23rd
GmSc Projection: 47th
Playing with Giannis makes it easy to fly under the radar, which may be why Holiday managed to average 18.3 points, 6.8 assists and 2.0 threes, while shooting 41.1 percent from three, with little fanfare in 2021-22. That kind of steady production on one end, along with his lockdown perimeter defense on the other makes Holiday another All-NBA candidate.
32. Domantas Sabonis
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 22nd
WAR Projection: 36th
GmSc Projection: 25th
Sabonis checks a lot of the same boxes as Jokic, just not as thoroughly. He’s a bruising low-post scorer, who inhales rebounds and has averaged at least five assists in each of the last three seasons.
33. Zach LaVine
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 53rd
WAR Projection: 91st
GmSc Projection: 29th
LaVine's willingness to take a step back upon the arrival of DeMar DeRozan was admirable, but he should reascend to the alpha scorer's role in 2022-23 (assuming DeRozan is willing to return a favor). His outside shooting ability can loosen things up for everyone else inside, and that will be especially important if Lonzo Ball is out for long.
34. Pascal Siakam
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 34th
WAR Projection: 41st
GmSc Projection: 50th
Pascal Siakam’s assist average has gone up in each of his last five seasons. And adding that wrinkle to his offensive game makes him a less predictable weapon. Point forward ability and switchable defense makes him a distinctly modern big.
35. Bradley Beal
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 86th
WAR Projection: 65th
GmSc Projection: 28th
Beal's offensive numbers (29.0 points, 5.6 assists and 2.3 threes over the last three seasons) are gaudy, but he’s had a below-average effective field-goal percentage in each of the last three years and offers little resistance on defense. Still, that kind of production on the glamorous end of the floor can make filling out the rest of a rotation a lot easier.
36. Jamal Murray
2021-22 Catch-Alls: N/A
WAR Projection: 86th
GmSc Projection: N/A
Jamal Murray hasn’t played in an NBA game since April of 2021. It’ll be a year and a half by the time the 2022-23 season starts. But, like Mitchell, he’s shown an upside in the postseason that’s hard to ignore. In 33 playoff games, Murray is averaging 24.3 points, 5.8 assists and 2.7 threes, while shooting 40.9 percent from deep. Jokic is undoubtedly Denver’s best player (in franchise history), but Murray has often been the one who’s shown the killer instinct necessary to secure big games.
37. Khris Middleton
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 47th
WAR Projection: 77th
GmSc Projection: 53rd
His shooting percentages have steadily trailed off from the absurd level he hit in 2019-20, and the projection systems seem to be onto that. I’m not ready to give up on the idea of “Khris Middleton, top-50 player,” though. He’s 31. There’s plenty of time for the shooting to get back on track (he’s been good, just not 2019-20 good). And the competitiveness he showed in the 2021 Finals was sorely missed in 2022.
38. Jarrett Allen
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 20th
WAR Projection: 39th
GmSc Projection: 32nd
He may not be quite as potent as a rim-runner or dominant as a rim-protector as Gobert, but few are, and Allen is very much in that player archetype. With Mitchell taking Lauri Markkanen’s spot in the starting five, Allen might find himself getting even more open dunks (not necessarily because Mitchell’s passing to him, but because of the attention he’ll command outside).
39. Brandon Ingram
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 65th
WAR Projection: 73rd
GmSc Projection: 34th
An over-reliance on the mid-range has contributed to Ingram posting below-average effective field-goal percentages in each of the last two seasons, but he showed legitimate point forward ability (and tendencies) in 2021-22. If he leans a bit harder into that (to the benefit of Zion), he’ll be even less predictable next season.
Tier 6B: More Great No. 2s, Other Stars and Borderline Stars
40. Scottie Barnes
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 90th
WAR Projection: 19th
GmSc Projection: 125th
Vaulting Barnes into the top 40 in his second season may feel a bit premature, but there’s an element of his game we didn’t get to see enough of in 2021-22. Even though he’s 6’9”, Barnes essentially played point guard in college. I think we can count on seeing more of that this season, which will make Barnes a far more dynamic forward.
41. Deandre Ayton
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 62nd
WAR Projection: 73rd
GmSc Projection: 33rd
With Paul aging, at some point, Ayton will probably have to assume more scoring responsibility. If it comes along with a willingness to draw contact inside (he’s been too willing to score while moving away from the rim in the past), Ayton should be able to average close to 20 and 10. That and improving rim protection should have Ayton comfortably in the top 50.
42. Desmond Bane
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 26th
WAR Projection: 23rd
GmSc Projection: 90th
Bane is already one of the most dangerous floor spacers in the NBA. He averaged 3.0 threes and shot 43.6 percent from deep in 2021-22. And I think there’s a bit more facilitating upside there. He may not be able to show it much as a teammate of Morant, but even in a secondary capacity, it’s helpful.
43. DeMar DeRozan
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 25th
WAR Projection: 152nd
GmSc Projection: 19th
Before you yell at me, just look at how much higher I am on 2022-23 DeRozan than FiveThirtyEight (OK, now you can yell at me). Numbers have long had their issues with DeRozan (because of the below-average defense and consistently negative net rating swings), but there’s no question he was a plus in 2021-22. His ability to take and make tough shots, and his willingness to pass made him a rightful All-NBA selection. He’s now in his mid-30s, though, and a slight step back to career norms feels likely.
44. Fred VanVleet
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 23rd
WAR Projection: 8th
GmSc Projection: 94th
On the other end of the spectrum, FiveThirtyEight loves VanVleet. An analytically friendly shot diet (58.5 percent of his shots were threes last season), plus playmaking and consistently positive net rating swings make it easy to see why. His slide outside the top 40 is the product of below-average scoring efficiency, lack of size and how ridiculously deep the league is.
45. Ben Simmons
2021-22 Catch-Alls: N/A
WAR Projection: 86th
GmSc Projection: N/A
The last time we saw Ben Simmons playing NBA basketball, he passed up a wide-open dunk in a pressure-packed moment of a playoff game. His coach and All-Star teammate threw him under the bus after that contest, and he subsequently missed all of 2021-22 with back and mental health concerns. At this point, there’s no way to know what we’re getting from Simmons next season. But if he’s 90 to 95 percent of the player he was before the aforementioned struggles, this ranking could end up looking silly. When healthy, he’s a dominant perimeter defender and transition playmaker.
46. Andrew Wiggins
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 79th
WAR Projection: 48th
GmSc Projection: 133rd
After five-plus years of mediocrity (or even worse) with the Timberwolves, Wiggins has found the right role for himself with the Warriors. He’s embraced the three-and-D specialty and was critical to a championship run. With much of the fluff essentially cut out of his game, Wiggins should remain a borderline All-Star for a while.
47. Evan Mobley
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 95th
WAR Projection: 93rd
GmSc Projection: 120th
Another second-year player makes the cut, and for Mobley, it has a lot to do with the All-Defense upside he showed as a rookie. Continued development on that end, improved outside shooting and a little more trust in his passing ability will have Cleveland competing for home-court advantage in the first round of the 2022 playoffs.
48. Tyrese Haliburton
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 46th
WAR Projection: 31st
GmSc Projection: 60th
If Turner and Hield get traded before the season starts (I’m sort of operating under that assumption), Haliburton is going to face a ton of defensive attention. And his efficiency may slide a bit because of that. Of course, that wouldn’t mean he’s worse. I still expect him to average close to 20 and 10. And fighting through adversity on a tanking team could make him better in the long run.
49. Draymond Green
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 71st
WAR Projection: 52nd
GmSc Projection: 260th
Few players in the NBA (or really, NBA history) boast as big a gap between impact and traditional numbers as Draymond. Over the last three seasons, he's averaged 7.5 points while shooting 44.9 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from three. He’s a revolutionary defender, though. His ability to guard all five positions is a critical component of Golden State’s four titles. And he’s one of the game’s more underrated forward playmakers. He’s clearly aged, but not enough to keep him out of the top 50.
50. Kristaps Porzingis
2021-22 Catch-Alls: 37th
WAR Projection: 48th
GmSc Projection: 21st
Not fitting as well as expected with Luka may have made Porzingis a little underrated. As a Wizard, he averaged 22.1 points, 2.9 assists, 1.7 threes and 1.5 blocks, while shooting 36.7 percent from deep. That’s a relatively unusual cocktail of production, and the shooting numbers probably don’t do him justice. Porzingis isn’t taking a lot of toe-the-line threes, and having a center who commands opposing bigs to closely follow him several feet outside the line creates a lot of extra space inside.
And there you have it. Your top 50 probably differs from mine. That’s fine. Have it out with me on Twitter. Prove me wrong on something above (possible, though never likely).